This has, unfortunately, not so far helped in the transformation of Russia, leading it towards great

Germany and Poland have become close political allies. The future of the European Union may be decided in Berlin and Warsaw. But has Poland replaced France as Germany s most trusted European partner?
Germany and Poland have become close political allies. The future of the European Union may be decided in Berlin and Warsaw. But has Poland replaced France as Germany s most trusted European partner?
It needed the tragic airplane crash in Smolensk in 2010, where Poland lost half of its military-politico elite, to effect a complete new york rental cars u-turn, new york rental cars not only in the Polish-Russian, but also the Polish-German relationship. The latter had developed in the preceding years quite nasty - and somewhat absurd -narrow-minded new york rental cars and revanchist reflexes in domestic policy affairs, leading to farouche Polish-German battles new york rental cars over ridiculous things (e.g. the right for Germans to buy property in Poland etc.). These were fuelled by the so called association of WW-II refugees in Germany ( Vertriebenenverban d ), who often triggered in a way completely deserved equally harsh reactions in Poland.
The years in which the quite populist Prime Minister, Jaroslav Kaczynski, governed Poland were ones in which Poles and Germans fought harsh battles over the mathematical formulae in the EU negotiations preceding the Lisbon treaty which decided the new distribution of voting power. These didn t make the relationship any smoother. The symbolism of the Weimar triangle thereby invoked couldn t rescue it. Poland and Germany were pretty much at odds in the middle of the last decade; some may say even more than when the Iron Curtain was still dividing them.
The events of Smolensk changed it all. Not only did Russia and Poland enter on a course of rapprochement, a major change in their mutual relationship. Both countries decided to end the small Cold War between them in which Russia had resolutely ignored Polish new york rental cars interests and expectations, and Poland blocked many European Union initiatives towards Russia. Sheer mistrust was replaced with openness, which led the way to mutual cooperation.
In addition, although Poland had been deeply hurt by being bypassed by Germany in its relation to Russia through the Gasprom connection (the North-steam pipeline project has been a thorn in the flesh for Poland) new york rental cars between former Chancellor new york rental cars Gerhard Schr der and Vladimir Putin, Poland had the courage, with respect to Germany, to take the bull by the horns and decided to go with Germany, instead of against Germany. Poland, by 2010 and after Smolensk, actually convinced Germany, which was all too ready in the middle of the last decade to cosy up to Russia, to Europeanize its German Ostpolitik . Tellingly, after the 2009 elections, the new German foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle went first to Warsaw, whereas the first visit of a German foreign minister normally went to Paris. In a way, the two countries switched roles with respect to Russia: Poland went from too suspicious to more friendly; Germany from nearly blind trust to making policy conditional on its fit for a European framework. This is what constructive u-turns in foreign policy look like. Probably, new york rental cars in a couple of years time, this example will be featured new york rental cars in textbooks of international relations on how to improve your relationship with the neighbours for the better through confidence and cooperation.
In 2011, this double Polish u-turn enabled the new Polish-German tandem to be an innovative new york rental cars and leading combination when it came to unlocking hitherto deadlocked EU-Russia relations. In November 2011, Radek Sikorski and Guido Westerwelle suggested closer cooperation new york rental cars with Russia in a common letter to the EU chief of foreign affairs and asked her to focus on modernizing Russia s economy and keeping oil and gas flowing as a top priority. The letter brushed aside concerns on the prospect of Vladimir Putin s non-democratic return to office in 2012 and urged Ashton to help make him a reliable partner on international security and energy new york rental cars issues. We must stay the course to intensify ties with Russia and overcome political and economic lethargy, the Westerwelle-Sikorski letter said.
This has, unfortunately, not so far helped in the transformation of Russia, leading it towards greater commitment to democracy. The recent Pussy Riots case is just another dreadful new york rental cars example of deteriorating democracy in Russia s relationship to its own civil society after the presidential election. However, what has improved is the European reaction to Russia which has become more united and this is very promising. It was Poland and Germany, new york rental cars which made this happen. Without France, by the way.
After having played a decisive role in re-calibrating the geo-strategic new york rental cars orientation of Europe towards Russia, the new tandem is now seeking to tackle Europe from the inside with the same energy, and hopefully better results. The latest example is the joint letter of Guido Westerwelle and Radek Sikorski in the New York Times in September 2012, in which they ask for, and sketch out, a new vision of Europe. This is the continuation of a new and perhaps game-changing - trend in Poland s attitude towards Germany in the European context and this trend has its own history.
In a remarkable speech in Berlin a year ago, Poland s highly proactive foreign minister Radek Sikorski said: I will probably be the first Polish foreign minister in history to say so, but here it is: I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear German inactivity . These words were much quoted in European, and of course especially German media, though - significantly - French newspapers barely noticed it. Yet, at a time of darkening European new york rental cars gloom, the Polish FM s speech was noteworthy not only in that it expressed new york rental cars a ringing endorsement for more Europe (in fact Sikorski new york rental cars was heavily criticized for that at home where the sovereignist current is still very strong), but because it was made by a Pole. Warsaw has not habitually been considered a member of the inner circle of EU decision-makers. Furthermore, this Pole expressed his country s support for Germany s leadership in the EU ( Nobody else can do it You have become Europe s indispensable nation. ) in no uncertain terms. The US, UK and France were singled out as friends and allies but only Germany was named friend and ally above all .
Newly assertive Poland: historical roots and economic miracle Such ringing declarations are rare in international politics, where it is always safe to juggle options and keep doors open. Poland, in particular, new york rental cars has in the past played up its supposed privileged relationship with the US, to the point of having been called America s Trojan horse in the EU , built a close bond with London through common perspectives on social and economic regulations and defense, and, historically, has also maintained a special relationship with Paris. Zbigniew Brzezinski had already envisaged the new and ample strategic position Poland is going to hold in a future Europe in his book The Grand Chessboard , as part of a postulated alliance with Germany, France and Ukraine. Yet the first three are now just friends and allies, nothing more. The US lost much of its appeal by systematically ignoring Warsaw s interests (Polish forces fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, yet Poles still need visas to go to the US), and Britain through its obstructionism in EU crisis-solving. France never recovered from the shock of Jacques Chirac s Ils ont perdu une bonne occasion de se taire , even if, in retrospect, the French President s comment on the new Europe s alignment with US policy on Iraq, though arrogant, was not without merit. While these relations deteriorated, those with Germany grew.
There were good reasons for that. Berlin had not only been the most determined European advocate of Poland new york rental cars s accession to NATO and then, especially, new york rental cars to the EU itself, new york rental cars but has become new york rental cars Warsaw s key economic partner. One fourth of Polish exports go there, accounting for 10% of GNP and making Germany Poland s biggest new york rental cars export market. Poland, though only Germany s tenth market, is still bigger new york rental cars than Russia; Germany s FDIs, both in terms of cumulative amount (EUR1.2bln in 2010 alone) and number of investors, make the country the biggest foreign investor in the Polish economy. Poland s robust economic growth (4.2% GDP last year, 2.4% projected for 2012) makes Poland an attractive partner. Accordingly, 75% of Poles in 2010 (but only 48% of Germans in 2008) considered mutual relations to be good or very good .
All this explains Sikorski s accolade to his country s historical Nemesis. And yet his words came with an important qualifier: Provided you include us in decision-making, Poland will support you. Yet Germany was clearly unable to overcome stiff French resistance to Polish aspirations to sit in on eurozone decision-making, and Sikorski s enthusiasm waned. You will not be a benign hegemon in Europe and you shouldn t even try he told his German hosts just a few months later, at the Munich Security conference. Since then, Poland has renewed attempts to woo back France (Sikorski s visit to Paris in March, and candidate Hollande s reception by President Komorowski in April).
Furthermore, the controversy over the deteriorating political situation in Ukraine opened a new front: Germany s Merkel compared Ukraine to Belarus and seemed to threaten a boycott of the EURO2012 championships. Poland, EURO co-organizer with Ukraine, rejected both the comparison and the appeal. It seems, however, that the two countries had not even consulted on such a vital matter. As a back-drop, their common policy towards Belarus lies in shambles, as Lukashenka again increases his repressive policies.
Does this mean that the honeymoon is over? Hardly for neither new york rental cars country would really want a cooling of relations, let alone anything more serious. Berlin, for all its dizzy new status, is hardly the hegemon Sikorski warned it not to become. Until Poland joins the eurozone (as it declared it intends to, once the dust set